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DefinitionA/B testing

Test hypothesis

A test hypothesis is a statement formulated to predict the outcome of a specific change on a website or application as part of an optimization process.

A test hypothesis is a statement formulated to predict the outcome of a specific change on a website or application as part of an optimization process. Derived from prior data analysis, it aims to answer a specific question regarding the expected impact on a predefined KPI.

The typical formulation of a hypothesis is: "If we change [element], then we will see [desired outcome]". This hypothesis then guides the design and execution of the A/B test or multivariate test, and will be validated or refuted by a statistical significance test, whether Bayesian or frequentist.

This approach helps structure the optimization process methodically, ensuring that tests are based on solid observations and analyses.

By validating or refuting the hypothesis, companies can gain valuable insights into the effectiveness of the changes made, which helps them make informed decisions to improve the user experience and achieve their business goals.

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